Demographic Dividend & Population Issues
🟠 Topic 15: Demographic Dividend & Population Issues
📌 Introduction
India’s demographic dividend has often been highlighted as one of its greatest opportunities — a large working-age population that can drive economic growth. However, whether this youth bulge turns into a blessing or a burden depends on education, employment, health, and skill development. This topic explores both the opportunities and challenges linked with population dynamics in India.
🔹 What is Demographic Dividend? 👨👩👧👦
📖 Definition
The demographic dividend refers to the economic growth potential that arises when a country’s working-age population (15-64 years) is larger than its dependent population (children and elderly).
This period offers higher productivity, increased savings, and greater economic output, provided the youth is skilled and productively employed.
📊 Demographic Trends in India
- India has one of the youngest populations in the world, with median age around 28 years (2023).
- Over 65% of India’s population is in the working age group.
- India’s demographic dividend window is expected to last till 2055.
🔹 Advantages of Demographic Dividend 🌟
1️⃣ Large Workforce
- A younger workforce can boost economic output, especially in manufacturing and services.
- Greater scope for innovation and entrepreneurship.
2️⃣ Increased Savings Rate
- Young workers tend to save more, boosting domestic capital formation.
- Higher savings-investment cycle supports infrastructure development.
3️⃣ Consumer Market Growth
- Rising incomes and urbanization create demand for goods, services, and housing.
- India’s consumer market becomes an engine of global economic growth.
4️⃣ Fiscal Benefits
- A larger workforce means higher tax revenue, enabling greater public investment in welfare and infrastructure.
🔹 Conditions for Harnessing Demographic Dividend ✔️
To reap the benefits, India needs:
1️⃣ Quality Education 🎓
- Focus on universal school education.
- Improve higher education and technical training.
- Emphasis on STEM fields and soft skills.
2️⃣ Skill Development 💼
- Programs like Skill India.
- Industry-specific vocational training.
- Focus on 4IR skills — AI, data analytics, robotics.
3️⃣ Employment Generation 🏭
- Promote labour-intensive industries (textiles, food processing).
- Facilitate ease of doing business to encourage startups.
- Develop rural non-farm employment opportunities.
4️⃣ Health & Nutrition 🏥
- Strengthen primary healthcare.
- Address malnutrition (POSHAN Abhiyan).
- Focus on mental health awareness.
🔹 Population Issues in India 📈
1️⃣ Population Explosion
- India became the most populous country in 2023, overtaking China.
- High population puts pressure on:
- Natural resources 🌾
- Healthcare & education systems 🏥
- Employment opportunities 🏢
2️⃣ Urbanization Challenges 🌆
- Overcrowded cities, slums, inadequate housing.
- Stress on transport, sanitation, and water supply.
- Unplanned urban growth leads to environmental degradation.
3️⃣ Regional Imbalances 🌏
- Northern states (Bihar, UP) have higher fertility rates.
- Southern states (Kerala, Tamil Nadu) show population stabilization.
- Leads to migrant workforce movement, impacting both source and destination regions.
4️⃣ Ageing Population (Post 2050) 👵
- Once demographic dividend passes, India will face ageing population challenges.
- Higher healthcare costs, pension liabilities, and reduced labour force participation.
🔹 Population Policies & Initiatives 🏛️
1️⃣ National Population Policy 2000
- Aim: Achieve stable population by 2045.
- Focus on:
- Universal access to reproductive health services.
- Education and empowerment of women.
- Delayed age of marriage and spacing of children.
2️⃣ Family Planning Program
- Launched in 1952 — world’s first family planning program.
- Promotes:
- Contraceptive use.
- Awareness campaigns (Hum Do Hamare Do).
- Sterilization incentives.
3️⃣ Skill Development Programs
- Skill India Mission.
- PMKVY (Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana).
4️⃣ Health Schemes
- Ayushman Bharat for affordable healthcare.
- POSHAN Abhiyan for nutrition improvement.
🔹 Population Theories Relevant for India
1️⃣ Malthusian Theory
- Population grows faster than food supply, leading to poverty and famine.
- Critics argue technological progress can offset resource constraints.
2️⃣ Demographic Transition Theory
- As countries develop:
- Stage 1: High birth & death rates.
- Stage 2: Falling death rates, high birth rates (Population explosion phase).
- Stage 3: Falling birth rates.
- Stage 4: Low birth & death rates (Population stabilization).
- India is transitioning from Stage 3 to Stage 4.
🔹 Key Statistics (2023)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Population | 1.42 billion |
| Working Age Population (15-64 years) | 65% |
| Median Age | 28 years |
| Fertility Rate | 2.0 (close to replacement level) |
📚 Practice MCQ
1️⃣ Consider the following statements regarding Demographic Dividend:
- It refers to the economic benefits arising from a high working-age population.
- India’s demographic dividend period is expected to end by 2030.
- A skilled workforce is essential to maximize demographic dividend benefits.
- It guarantees economic growth irrespective of policy interventions.
Which of the above statements are correct?
✅ Options:
(a) 1, 2 and 3 only
(b) 1 and 3 only
(c) 2, 3 and 4 only
(d) 1, 2, 3 and 4
2️⃣ Which of the following is a challenge associated with population explosion?
✅ Options:
(a) Declining workforce
(b) Increased pressure on land and resources
(c) Lower dependency ratio
(d) Decline in youth population
3️⃣ Consider the following statements about National Population Policy 2000:
- It aims for population stabilization by 2045.
- It promotes delayed marriage and spacing of children.
- It focuses on universal access to reproductive health services.
- It mandates a two-child policy for all states.
Which of the above statements are correct?
✅ Options:
(a) 1, 2 and 3 only
(b) 2 and 4 only
(c) 1 and 3 only
(d) 1, 2, 3 and 4
4️⃣ In which year was India’s Family Planning Programme launched?
✅ Options:
(a) 1947
(b) 1952
(c) 1975
(d) 2000
5️⃣ Which stage of Demographic Transition Theory best describes India today?
✅ Options:
(a) Stage 1
(b) Stage 2
(c) Stage 3
(d) Stage 4
