UPSC Current – How are mathematical models being used to predict the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus?
How are mathematical models being used to predict the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus?
Why in News ?
The India National Supermodel Committee, constituted by the Department of Science and Technology (DST) and consisting of mathematicians, computer scientists and medical professionals, recently announced that India had passed its ‘COVID19 peak’ in September and that active infections by the SARSCoV2 virus would fall to a ‘minimal’ level by February. The conclusions were arrived at with the help of a mathematical model.
What is the ‘National Supermodel’?
When the DST said in May that it had convened a group to track the evolution of the pandemic, it viewed the ‘supermodel’ as one that would aggregate the ‘best of’ existing mathematical models, and hence the name. From February to March, when the relative numbers of infections were low everywhere in the world except China, scientists began estimating the beginning and the course of the pandemic in their countries through mathematical modelling. Using differential equations, that show how multiple variables, such as infections and deaths vary with respect to one another on different
parameters, modellers try to estimate the fraction of the population which is infected at a particular point in time.